Bitcoin Whales Target $120,000 in the Long Term Despite Current Bearish Pressure

While the retail market shakes from recent drops, institutional money is setting up a massive board for the end of the year.

The bitcoin options market is sending mixed but highly revealing signals. According to the latest Coinglass data, total BTC options Open Interest (OI) sits at $33.80B, representing a nearly 50% drop from its all-time high in October 2025, when it neared $65.58B. However, a deep dive into the position board reveals that despite the current price correction toward the $63,273 zone, large players (whales) maintain a starkly bullish stance for the end of the year, accumulating massive bets at $120,000.

Coinglass chart showing bitcoin options Open Interest and BTC price between 2024 and June 2026.
The Coinglass chart shows the drop in total BTC options Open Interest from its $65.58B peak in 2025 to the current $33.80B, coinciding with price consolidation at $63,273.

 

The Clash of Sentiment: Call Dominance in the Macro, Panic in the Micro

When looking at the big picture, long-term sentiment remains optimistic. Global Open Interest shows a clear advantage for call option buyers, with 58.95% Calls (306,659.77 BTC) versus 41.05% Puts (213,516.31 BTC).

Nevertheless, the last 24 hours of volume tell a story of short-term hedging and caution. Put options dominated daily volume with 54.25% ($21,289.51 BTC) against 45.75% Calls ($17,954.94 BTC). This reflects that traders are protecting their portfolios against potential immediate drops, especially with the monthly expiration just around the corner.

The Open Interest Ranking: Where Is Institutional Money Looking?

The real treasure map lies in the individual position ranking on Deribit, the platform that dominates the derivatives market with $28.03B of the total Open Interest.

The contract with the highest locked capital is the Deribit BTC-25DEC26-120000-C, with an accumulated 7,524.9 BTC. This means thousands of contracts are betting that the price of bitcoin will surpass $120,000 by Christmas this year. The second largest position reinforces this trend: the July 31, 2026 contract at $80,000 (Calls) holds 7,118.7 BTC.

On the protection side, bears are not sitting on their hands. The last 24 hours of volume were led by the sell contract Deribit BTC-26JUN26-60000-P with a volume of 1,351.4 BTC, proving that $60,000 is the psychological support line the market is looking to defend tooth and nail this week.

From $110,000 Euphoria to Current Consolidation

To understand the current context of the Bitcoin network and its derivatives market, looking at the rearview mirror is crucial. On October 23, 2025, Open Interest reached a peak of $65.58B with bitcoin trading at a record $110,026.00. At that time, CME contributed $7.61B and Deribit led with $51.68B.

The current June 2026 landscape, with an open interest of $33.80B and a price of $63,273.90, shows a notable “flush out” of excessive leverage. Far from being a signal of a dying cycle, this drop in OI is usually interpreted as a maturation and consolidation phase, preparing the ground for the next strong directional move.

Market Outlook

In the short term, the pressure exerted by Put dominance over the last 24 hours suggests volatility or painful sideways price action ahead of the late June expirations. However, massive institutional positioning in the $120,000 zone for December makes it clear that smart money is capitalizing on these discounted prices to accumulate ahead of the second half of the year.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or an invitation to invest. Crypto options trading carries a high risk of capital loss.

Share this post

MUST READ